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報告題目：Biomarker variability in joint analysis for longitudinal and survival data （縱向和生存數(shù)據(jù)聯(lián)合分析中指標變化率問題）

主講人：潘建新教授（北京師范大學-香港浸會大學聯(lián)合國際學院）

時間：2023年4月17日（周一）15:00 p.m.

地點：北院卓遠樓305會議室

主辦單位：統(tǒng)計與數(shù)學學院

摘要：The role of visit-to-visit variability of a biomarker in predicting related disease has been recently recognized in medical science. Existing measures of biological variability are criticized for being entangled with random variability resulted from measurement error or being unreliable due to a limited number of measurements for each individual. We propose a new measure to quantify the biological variability of a biomarker by evaluating the fluctuation of each individual-specific trajectory behind longitudinal processes. Given a mixed-effects model for longitudinal data with the mean function over time specified by cubic splines, the proposed variability measure can be expressed mathematically as a quadratic form of random effects. A Cox-type model is proposed for time-to-event data by incorporating the defined variability as well as the current level of the underlying longitudinal trajectory as covariates, which constitutes the joint modelling framework. Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators are established for the new joint model. Parameter estimation is implemented via an EM algorithm with fully exponential Laplace approximation to reduce the computation burden due to the increasing dimension of random effects. Simulation studies are conducted to reveal the advantage of the joint modelling method over the two-stage method. We apply the proposed model to investigate the effects of systolic blood pressure variability on cardiovascular events by analyzing an elderly trial data, which motivates actually this research work.Joint work with Dr Chunyu Wang of Cambridge University of the UK.

主講人簡介：

潘建新教授是北京師范大學-香港浸會大學聯(lián)合國際學院的首席教授。

潘建新教授的研究方向包括統(tǒng)計建模、統(tǒng)計學習和數(shù)據(jù)科學，并將其應用于醫(yī)學、公共衛(wèi)生、金融和工業(yè)，在統(tǒng)計學和多學科研究領(lǐng)域的期刊上發(fā)表了130多篇學術(shù)論文，在Springer出版社出版了3本專著，曾多次主持英國和歐洲各研究委員會的基金項目。潘教授是英國皇家統(tǒng)計學會會員、國際統(tǒng)計研究協(xié)會成員和艾倫·圖靈數(shù)據(jù)科學與人工智能研究所會員。他是英國皇家統(tǒng)計學會在曼徹斯特分部的主席，并長期擔任一些統(tǒng)計期刊的副主編，包括“Biometrics”（2008-2018）、“Biostatistics and Epidemiology”（2013-）、“Biometrical Journal”（2016-）、“Journal of Multivariate Analysis”（2019-）和“Electronic Journal of Statistics”（2022-）。