報(bào)告題目:Testing for structural change of predictive regression model to threshold predictive regression model
主講人:朱復(fù)康教授(吉林大學(xué))
時(shí)間:2022年7月5日(周二)10:00 a.m.
形式:線上講座(騰訊會(huì)議)
會(huì)議ID:183-360-777
主辦單位:統(tǒng)計(jì)與數(shù)學(xué)學(xué)院
摘要:This article investigates two test statistics for testing structural changes and thresholds in predictive regression models. The generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) test is proposed for the stationary predictor and the generalized F test is suggested for the persistent predictor. Under the null hypothesis of no structural change and threshold, it is shown that the GLR test statistic converges to a function of a centered Gaussian process, and the generalized F test statistic converges to a function of Brownian motions. A Bootstrap method is proposed to obtain the critical values of test statistics. Simulation studies and a real example are given to assess the performances of the proposed tests.
主講人簡(jiǎn)介:
朱復(fù)康,吉林大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)學(xué)院教授、博士生導(dǎo)師。吉林國(guó)家應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)中心副主任、吉林大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)學(xué)院院長(zhǎng)助理、概率統(tǒng)計(jì)與數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)系主任。2008年博士畢業(yè),2013年被破格聘為教授。主要從事時(shí)間序列分析和金融統(tǒng)計(jì)的研究,已經(jīng)在Annals of Applied Statistics、Journal of Business & Economic Statistics、Statistica Sinica等期刊上發(fā)表論文50余篇。作為負(fù)責(zé)人獲得省部級(jí)以上科研項(xiàng)目10項(xiàng),其中國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目4項(xiàng)。曾獲得教育部自然科學(xué)獎(jiǎng)二等獎(jiǎng)、吉林省科學(xué)技術(shù)獎(jiǎng)二等獎(jiǎng)等科研獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)。現(xiàn)任中國(guó)數(shù)學(xué)會(huì)概率統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)會(huì)、中國(guó)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)統(tǒng)計(jì)研究會(huì)等學(xué)會(huì)的理事或常務(wù)理事,是JRSSB、JBES、AoAS等60余個(gè)SCI期刊的匿名審稿人。